Written by Michael Holihan, on 08-21-2007

Views 1898

Favoured 1

The famous idiom of being "painted into a corner" is an appropriate description for the situation America finds itself in the current Middle East conflict. From the opening salvo of gunfire in Operation Iraqi Freedom on March 20, 2003 to President Bush arriving on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln 42 days later declaring the end of major combat operation, the entire military operation had been nothing short of a battlefield triumph. However, the American euphoria that existed began to quickly evaporate as the hot winds of religious and ethnic animosity began to blow in from all corners of this ancient region.

American forces now find themselves with a complicated imbroglio in Iraq with embolden Islamic insurgents within, a powerful and radical Shiite nation to the East and a host of political-minefields with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Israel and of course the sleeping giant; Turkey.

Before we venture to far out into this explosive landscape, let's postulate a radical "Option" for the United States regarding a beneficial re-alignment strategy in Iraq and our future relationships with the key Middle East players.

1.)  Political expediency as well as public opinion necessitates the realty of strategically drawing down US Forces in Iraq. The obvious realization from the current military operation is that the fragile seedling of Democracy cannot take root and flourish in Iraqi earth that is constantly watered with deceit, fear and senseless blood shed. The soil of hope that Americans sacrificially and willing transported to Iraq has been swallowed up in a vast Islamic desert that seethes with very old political and spiritual weeds.

2.)  In order for America to remain a strong and capable super-power, it is necessary for her to maintain cohesive relationships with the countries of the Middle East that are responsible for our economic life-blood, hydrocarbon energy or in other words, OIL. It is further required that in a world that is clamoring for this limited and valuable commodity, America must make long term, strategic-energy alliances that will ensure the flow of energy sources to the United States. America's strategic economic need for oil was, after all, the unspoken "Casus belli" that motivated this overthrow of an oil-rich foreign power. Assessments from the US Energy Information Administration conclude that Iraq ranks third in global reserves of oil as well as possessing significant natural gas reserves. The Administration's has as its energy mantra that, "Reliable, Affordable, & Environmentally Sound Energy is America's Future." The US National Energy Policy report from May 2001 states,

"We should not, however, look at energy security in isolation from the rest of the world. In a global energy marketplace, US energy and economic security are directly linked not only to our domestic and international energy supplies, but to those of our trading partners as well."

In an almost prophetic tone, the Energy Policy goes on to state the obvious,

"By any estimation, Middle East oil producers will remain central to world oil security. The Gulf will be a primary focus of US international energy policy."

America should not be ashamed of our strategic need for long-term energy security nor should we dance behind a thin veil of "democracy tree-planting" when it is apparent that the sands in Iraq are unable to support the fragile root system of any young democratic seedling, namely: integrity, responsibility and morality.

3.)  The reality on the ground in Southern Iraq, which is predominately Shiite and religiously aligned with Iran, is that as soon as the British troops are withdrawn by the end of 2007, Iran will aggressively seek to fill the power vacuum and dominate this oil-rich region. With the change of leadership in Britain as well as the recent coalition of 43 southern tribal leaders announcing the formation of the autonomy government of the Unified Southern Iraq, a time of reckoning has arrived for the United States. While we are in a relative position of strength regarding force level, we should aggressively negotiate with the Iranian leadership for an enforceable agreement regarding their continued efforts to destabilize the entire region. America, along with Britain should agree to permit Iran to annex this southern portion of Iraq along with the valuable reserves of oil. In exchange for this non-confrontational exchange, Iran would supply to the government in Baghdad 15% of all oil revenues that are generated from this region and agree to transfer 30% of all oil to the US and Great Britain. This is a reasonable tribute for the real estate and would be a source of open dialogue between these "current" rivals. However, before Iran steps one foot onto this "annexed" oil land, the Islamic leadership in Tehran must terminate all covert support for any elements of Al-Qaeda or radical Shiites in Iraq, namely Muqtada al-Sadr and his militias as well has reign in their proxies, Hezbollah in Syria and Hammas in Gaza. Finally, Iran would allow unhampered and verifiable audits of their nuclear developments by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran's stated purpose in developing nuclear power is for energy and as long as this is proven accurate, there will be no breach of this agreement. Iran's overall compliance with this accord will be measured by the draw-down of terrorist activity in these stated areas and would be overseen by the US Armada in the Persian Gulf. In this accord the United States, using their super-power status, will outline the consequences if Iran falls short in their commitments. The US military will deal out retribution that will be swift, pre-determined and destructive to the economic infrastructure of Iran if they fail to follow through with their agreement. By allowing Iran to annex this valuable area of Iraq, this will place them on the border of Saudi Arabia. The House of Saud is rightfully nervous about the Shiite nation sharing a border; however, there would be a 15 mile buffer zone established and no allowance for troop buildup on either side. Again, the United States military will oversee this aspect of the agreement.

4.)  In northern Iraq, America has a rare opportunity to form a long-term strategic energy-alliance with Turkey. Turkey is quickly becoming a global energy hub as it is the land bridge between not only three continents but for the energy producers of the Middle East, Central Asia, the Caucasus and even Russia to the various consumers in the US, the European Union and even the Pacific Rim nations. Having hydrocarbon reserves does give a nation like Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Iran, Iraq and Russia a measure of global power, but these countries realize that they are dependant upon the one nation that is positioning itself to become the Global conduit; Turkey. American should seize the occasion while Europe vacillates regarding Turkey's EU bid, which likely will never happen, and formalize an independent energy agreement. The essence of this bilateral linkage would be that the United States would stand behind Turkey's desire to eradicate the PKK terrorist along with their geo-political ambitions to create a separate Kurdistan state which of course would encompass territory in northern Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey. Turkey would be given the "green light" to move their troops into northern Iraq while at the same time the current US forces in Southern Iraq would move north to prevent any PKK from escaping. Turkey would oversee the portion of northern Iraq that encompasses the region from Mosul to Kirkuk and east to the Iranian border. The current Kurdistan Regional Government will still be empowered to administer the region, but under the protection of the Turkish military. The "carrot" for the current Kurdistan government to work within this regional power-sharing would be the massive infusion of capital investment into the oil infrastructure as well as the military guarantee from Turkey and the US. In exchange for this continued oversight from the Turkish and US military, 30% of all exported oil would be allocated to Turkey and the United States.

5.)  The republic of Turkey is like a regional hurricane that is moving from the cooler waters of the post-Ottoman Empire, which was a powerful economic and military storm from the 1453 AD to 1918 AD, to the hot ocean of global energy. Besides being second to military strength in NATO and the premier force in the Middle East, Turkey is positioning itself through energy agreements with Iraq, Iran, the Caspian countries and even Russia to be the strategic energy transit route for much of the world. China, Japan, India and even Europe are aggressively securing long-term energy accords from Mid East producers that will transit Turkey. This approaching energy-storm should be a clear flag of warning to the United States to reassess her future energy policy. The leadership of America should forth-rightly present a long range, strategic Energy Plan that will aggressively secure the resources for America to remain a leader in the world. The mission in Iraq should be re-aligned to temporally minimize hostility from Iran, limit the loss of U.S. troops in the region, and at the same time assertively secure the energy reserves in northern Iraq. In this endeavor, America should not be bashful or apologetic. America should boldly seize the rare opportunity, while it is still available, to establish a solid military and energy link with the Republic of Turkey. The nation of Turkey is currently going through a series of internal and external "eye-wall" transformations that are quickly producing a powerful, regional vortex. Although this strengthening may be difficult to visible see, this super-vortex will not only grow but will pull more economic resources into its sphere of influence. Like outwardly expanding rain-bands that powerfully lash out, Turkey will once again utilize its vast military supremacy to establish an "Energy Vortex" that will appear on the radar screen of every country of the world.

---

Users' Comments (0)

Add your comment